Scores 1m ago· Odds 2h ago500 credits

Spain v Argentina

0–0

Final · M104·Sun 19 Jul, 23:00·MetLife Stadium, New York / New Jersey(2090 v 2080 Elo)

Model vs Market

Model Market

Spain

44%

39%

+4.2pp

Draw

25%

27%

−2.1pp

Argentina

31%

33%

−2.1pp

Synthetic market (9 books)

model-derived — add a key for real prices

Spain

2.50

best at Pinnacle · eu · 40%

Draw

3.63

best at Pinnacle · eu · 28%

Argentina

2.89

best at DraftKings · us · 35%

Market agreement (de-vigged, band = book spread)

Spain

39%

Draw

27%

Head-to-head & form

high familiarity — 14 meetings

Spain wins

draws

Argentina wins

Last meeting: 6-1 on 2018-03-27. Familiar rivals — history shown for context; the model takes no side from familiarity.

Spain — last 5

DWDDW

Argentina — last 5

WWWWW

Model

Toss-up44%

Most probable

1–1

Spain

Best upset

0–1

Argentina · 8.0%

AdvantageHSpain+13pp

Most likely scorelines

1–112.1%

1–09.9%

2–19.0%

P(home / draw / away)44% / 25% / 31%

Expected goals (xG)1.50 – 1.22

Adjustments

Sharpest books1X2vig

Pinnacleeu2.503.632.862.5%

DraftKingsus2.403.432.895.4%

Bet365uk2.393.432.866.0%

Unibeteu2.373.442.876.1%

Sportsbetau2.393.472.796.5%

William Hilluk2.383.442.796.9%

FanDuelus2.343.432.857.0%

bwineu2.393.322.857.0%

+ 1 more books · best price across all shown above

Hclimate

temperate-climate side in New York / New Jersey summer heat

-10

Aclimate

temperate-climate side in New York / New Jersey summer heat

-10

Net Δ effect0 Elo

Match details

VenueMetLife StadiumNew York / New Jersey, USA

Altitude7 m

StageFinal

Result

Final

0–0model said Spain · missed ✗

elo-mc-v1 · 50,000 sims · generated 2026-06-10