France v England

4–6

Third place · M103·Sun 19 Jul, 01:00·Hard Rock Stadium, Miami(2060 v 2030 Elo)

Model vs Market

Model Market

France

39%

44%

−4.6pp

Draw

26%

27%

−1.3pp

England

35%

29%

+6.0pp

Synthetic market (9 books)

model-derived — add a key for real prices

France

2.21

best at Pinnacle · eu · 45%

Draw

3.66

best at Pinnacle · eu · 27%

England

3.33

best at Pinnacle · eu · 30%

Market agreement (de-vigged, band = book spread)

France

44%

Draw

27%

Head-to-head & form

high familiarity — 34 meetings

France wins

draws

England wins

Last meeting: 2-1 on 2022-12-10. Familiar rivals — history shown for context; the model takes no side from familiarity.

France — last 5

WWWLW

England — last 5

WDLWW

Model

Toss-up39%

Most probable

1–1

France

Best upset

0–1

England · 8.8%

AdvantageToo close to call

Most likely scorelines

1–112.2%

1–09.4%

0–18.8%

P(home / draw / away)39% / 26% / 35%

Expected goals (xG)1.40 – 1.31

Adjustments

applied to Elo Δ

Sharpest books1X2vig

Pinnacleeu2.213.663.332.6%

DraftKingsus2.153.503.285.6%

Bet365uk2.173.503.205.9%

Unibeteu2.143.553.226.0%

Sportsbetau2.123.543.226.5%

FanDuelus2.153.413.217.0%

bwineu2.163.413.187.1%

William Hilluk2.153.373.237.1%

+ 1 more books · best price across all shown above

France v England

Model vs Market

Synthetic market (9 books)

Head-to-head & form

Model

Adjustments

Match details

Result