England v Argentina

1–2

Semi-final · M102·Wed 15 Jul, 23:00·Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta(2030 v 2080 Elo)

Model vs Market

Model Market

England

31%

26%

+4.4pp

Draw

25%

27%

−1.3pp

Argentina

44%

47%

−3.1pp

Synthetic market (9 books)

model-derived — add a key for real prices

England

3.67

best at Pinnacle · eu · 27%

Draw

3.61

best at Pinnacle · eu · 28%

Argentina

2.10

best at Pinnacle · eu · 48%

Market agreement (de-vigged, band = book spread)

England

26%

Draw

27%

Head-to-head & form

high familiarity — 15 meetings

England wins

draws

Argentina wins

Last meeting: 3-2 on 2005-11-12. Familiar rivals — history shown for context; the model takes no side from familiarity.

England — last 5

WDLWW

Argentina — last 5

WWWWW

Model

Toss-up44%

Most probable

1–1

Argentina

Best upset

1–0

England · 8.0%

AdvantageAArgentina+13pp

Most likely scorelines

1–112.1%

0–19.9%

1–29.1%

P(home / draw / away)31% / 25% / 44%

Expected goals (xG)1.21 – 1.50

Sharpest books1X2vig

Pinnacleeu3.673.612.102.6%

DraftKingsus3.513.582.045.4%

Unibeteu3.623.561.996.0%

Bet365uk3.573.472.036.1%

Sportsbetau3.553.542.006.4%

William Hilluk3.613.581.956.9%

bwineu3.563.581.967.0%

FanDuelus3.653.431.987.1%

+ 1 more books · best price across all shown above

England v Argentina

Model vs Market

Synthetic market (9 books)

Head-to-head & form

Model

Adjustments

Match details

Result