France v Spain

0–2

Semi-final · M101·Tue 14 Jul, 23:00·AT&T Stadium, Dallas(2060 v 2090 Elo)

Model vs Market

Model Market

France

27%

30%

−3.1pp

Draw

25%

27%

−2.5pp

Spain

49%

43%

+5.6pp

Synthetic market (9 books)

model-derived — add a key for real prices

France

3.29

best at Pinnacle · eu · 30%

Draw

3.54

best at DraftKings · us · 28%

Spain

2.29

best at Pinnacle · eu · 44%

Market agreement (de-vigged, band = book spread)

France

30%

Draw

27%

Head-to-head & form

high familiarity — 38 meetings

France wins

draws

Spain wins

Last meeting: 4-5 on 2025-06-05. Familiar rivals — history shown for context; the model takes no side from familiarity.

France — last 5

WWWLW

Spain — last 5

DWDDW

Model

Toss-up49%

Most probable

1–1

Spain

Best upset

1–0

France · 7.3%

AdvantageASpain+22pp

Most likely scorelines

1–111.7%

0–110.4%

1–29.5%

P(home / draw / away)27% / 25% / 49%

Expected goals (xG)1.13 – 1.62

Adjustments

Sharpest books1X2vig

Pinnacleeu3.293.522.292.5%

DraftKingsus3.183.542.185.6%

Unibeteu3.143.482.206.0%

Bet365uk3.153.512.186.1%

Sportsbetau3.153.522.166.5%

FanDuelus3.193.492.136.9%

William Hilluk3.183.372.187.0%

bwineu3.113.422.197.1%

+ 1 more books · best price across all shown above

France v Spain

Model vs Market

Synthetic market (9 books)

Head-to-head & form

Model

Adjustments

Match details

Result