Norway v England

1–1

Quarter-final · M99·Sun 12 Jul, 01:00·Hard Rock Stadium, Miami(1880 v 2030 Elo)

Model vs Market

Model Market

Norway

18%

16%

+1.9pp

Draw

22%

23%

−0.6pp

England

60%

61%

−1.3pp

Synthetic market (9 books)

model-derived — add a key for real prices

Norway

6.17

best at Pinnacle · eu · 16%

Draw

4.30

best at Pinnacle · eu · 23%

England

1.59

best at Pinnacle · eu · 63%

Market agreement (de-vigged, band = book spread)

Norway

16%

Draw

23%

Head-to-head & form

high familiarity — 12 meetings

Norway wins

draws

England wins

Last meeting: 0-1 on 2014-09-03. Familiar rivals — history shown for context; the model takes no side from familiarity.

Norway — last 5

WLDWD

England — last 5

WDLWW

Model

Lean60%

Most probable

0–1

England

Best upset

1–0

Norway · 5.4%

AdvantageAEngland+42pp

Most likely scorelines

0–110.9%

0–210.5%

1–110.3%

P(home / draw / away)18% / 22% / 60%

Expected goals (xG)0.95 – 1.92

Adjustments

Sharpest books1X2vig

Pinnacleeu6.174.301.592.4%

DraftKingsus5.994.101.555.6%

Bet365uk5.964.091.546.2%

Unibeteu5.914.181.536.2%

Sportsbetau5.874.121.536.7%

William Hilluk5.904.231.516.8%

FanDuelus5.714.011.557.0%

bwineu5.634.051.557.0%

+ 1 more books · best price across all shown above

Norway v England

Model vs Market

Synthetic market (9 books)

Head-to-head & form

Model

Adjustments

Match details

Result