Spain v Belgium

2–1

Quarter-final · M98·Fri 10 Jul, 23:00·SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles(2090 v 1930 Elo)

Model vs Market

Model Market

Spain

69%

63%

+6.1pp

Draw

19%

22%

−3.6pp

Belgium

13%

15%

−2.4pp

Synthetic market (9 books)

model-derived — add a key for real prices

Spain

1.56

best at Pinnacle · eu · 64%

Draw

4.36

best at Pinnacle · eu · 23%

Belgium

6.43

best at Pinnacle · eu · 16%

Market agreement (de-vigged, band = book spread)

Spain

63%

Draw

22%

Head-to-head & form

high familiarity — 22 meetings

Spain wins

draws

Belgium wins

Last meeting: 2-0 on 2016-09-01. Familiar rivals — history shown for context; the model takes no side from familiarity.

Spain — last 5

DWDDW

Belgium — last 5

WWDWW

Model

Lean69%

Most probable

2–0

Spain

Best upset

0–1

Belgium · 3.9%

AdvantageHSpain+56pp

Most likely scorelines

2–011.8%

1–010.6%

2–19.7%

P(home / draw / away)69% / 19% / 13%

Expected goals (xG)2.21 – 0.82

Adjustments

Sharpest books1X2vig

Pinnacleeu1.564.366.432.6%

DraftKingsus1.514.316.255.4%

Unibeteu1.504.336.235.8%

Bet365uk1.494.256.426.2%

Sportsbetau1.494.256.236.7%

William Hilluk1.484.236.406.8%

FanDuelus1.484.206.436.9%

bwineu1.514.146.046.9%

+ 1 more books · best price across all shown above

Spain v Belgium

Model vs Market

Synthetic market (9 books)

Head-to-head & form

Model

Adjustments

Match details

Result