France v Morocco

2–0

Quarter-final · M97·Fri 10 Jul, 00:00·Gillette Stadium, Boston(2060 v 1920 Elo)

Model vs Market

Model Market

France

58%

59%

−1.3pp

Draw

22%

24%

−1.2pp

Morocco

20%

17%

+2.5pp

Synthetic market (9 books)

model-derived — add a key for real prices

France

1.65

best at Pinnacle · eu · 61%

Draw

4.16

best at Pinnacle · eu · 24%

Morocco

5.71

best at Bet365 · uk · 18%

Market agreement (de-vigged, band = book spread)

France

59%

Draw

Head-to-head & form

France wins

draws

Morocco wins

Last meeting: 2-0 on 2022-12-14.

France — last 5

WWWLW

Morocco — last 5

DWWWD

Model

Lean58%

Most probable

1–0

France

Best upset

0–1

Morocco · 5.7%

AdvantageHFrance+38pp

Most likely scorelines

1–010.9%

1–110.6%

2–010.1%

P(home / draw / away)58% / 22% / 20%

Expected goals (xG)1.86 – 0.98

Adjustments

Sharpest books1X2vig

Pinnacleeu1.654.165.622.4%

DraftKingsus1.584.035.695.7%

Bet365uk1.583.965.716.1%

Unibeteu1.594.055.396.1%

Sportsbetau1.603.875.546.4%

FanDuelus1.593.985.316.9%

William Hilluk1.593.975.316.9%

bwineu1.554.125.516.9%

+ 1 more books · best price across all shown above

France v Morocco

Model vs Market

Synthetic market (9 books)

Head-to-head & form

Model

Adjustments

Match details

Result