USA v Belgium

1–4

Round of 16 · M94·Tue 07 Jul, 04:00·Lumen Field, Seattle(1800 v 1930 Elo)

Model vs Market

Model Market

USA

26%

+0.8pp

Draw

25%

27%

−1.6pp

Belgium

49%

48%

+0.9pp

Synthetic market (9 books)

model-derived — add a key for real prices

USA

3.75

best at Pinnacle · eu · 27%

Draw

3.69

best at Pinnacle · eu · 27%

Belgium

2.05

best at Pinnacle · eu · 49%

Market agreement (de-vigged, band = book spread)

USA

26%

Draw

27%

Head-to-head & form

high familiarity — 8 meetings

USA wins

draws

Belgium wins

Last meeting: 2-5 on 2026-03-28. Familiar rivals — history shown for context; the model takes no side from familiarity.

USA — last 5

WLLWL

Belgium — last 5

WWDWW

Model

Toss-up49%

Most probable

1–1

Belgium

Best upset

1–0

USA · 7.3%

AdvantageABelgium+22pp

Most likely scorelines

1–111.7%

0–110.4%

1–29.5%

P(home / draw / away)26% / 25% / 49%

Expected goals (xG)1.13 – 1.61

Adjustments

Sharpest books1X2vig

Pinnacleeu3.753.692.052.5%

DraftKingsus3.683.551.995.6%

Bet365uk3.653.462.016.1%

Unibeteu3.743.531.966.1%

Sportsbetau3.733.431.986.5%

FanDuelus3.593.471.996.9%

bwineu3.653.531.957.0%

William Hilluk3.623.621.937.1%

+ 1 more books · best price across all shown above

USA v Belgium

Model vs Market

Synthetic market (9 books)

Head-to-head & form

Model

Adjustments

Match details

Result