Portugal v Spain

0–1

Round of 16 · M93·Mon 06 Jul, 23:00·AT&T Stadium, Dallas(2010 v 2090 Elo)

Model vs Market

Model Market

Portugal

19%

24%

−4.9pp

Draw

22%

26%

−3.8pp

Spain

59%

50%

EDGE +8.7pp

Synthetic market (9 books)

model-derived — add a key for real prices

Portugal

4.16

best at Pinnacle · eu · 24%

Draw

3.74

best at Unibet · eu · 27%

Spain

1.94

best at Pinnacle · eu · 52%

Market agreement (de-vigged, band = book spread)

Portugal

24%

Draw

26%

Head-to-head & form

high familiarity — 42 meetings

Portugal wins

draws

Spain wins

Last meeting: 2-2 on 2025-06-08. Familiar rivals — history shown for context; the model takes no side from familiarity.

Portugal — last 5

WDWWW

Spain — last 5

DWDDW

Model

Lean59%

Most probable

0–1

Spain

Best upset

1–0

Portugal · 5.6%

AdvantageASpain+40pp

Most likely scorelines

0–110.9%

1–110.5%

0–210.3%

P(home / draw / away)19% / 22% / 59%

Expected goals (xG)0.97 – 1.89

Adjustments

Sharpest books1X2vig

Pinnacleeu4.163.691.942.7%

DraftKingsus3.933.601.915.6%

Bet365uk3.983.631.885.9%

Unibeteu3.913.741.866.1%

Sportsbetau3.933.701.856.5%

William Hilluk3.923.551.886.9%

FanDuelus3.883.691.856.9%

bwineu3.823.591.896.9%

+ 1 more books · best price across all shown above

Portugal v Spain

Model vs Market

Synthetic market (9 books)

Head-to-head & form

Model

Adjustments

Match details

Result