Mexico v England

2–3

Round of 16 · M92·Mon 06 Jul, 04:00·Estadio Azteca, Mexico City(1810 v 2030 Elo)

Model vs Market

Model Market

Mexico

21%

18%

+2.5pp

Draw

23%

24%

−1.4pp

England

56%

57%

−1.1pp

Synthetic market (9 books)

model-derived — add a key for real prices

Mexico

5.35

best at Pinnacle · eu · 19%

Draw

3.99

best at William Hill · uk · 25%

England

1.71

best at Pinnacle · eu · 58%

Market agreement (de-vigged, band = book spread)

Mexico

18%

Draw

24%

Head-to-head & form

high familiarity — 10 meetings

Mexico wins

draws

England wins

Last meeting: 1-3 on 2010-05-24. Familiar rivals — history shown for context; the model takes no side from familiarity.

Mexico — last 5

DDWWW

England — last 5

WDLWW

Model

Lean56%

Most probable

1–1

England

Best upset

1–0

Mexico · 6.0%

AdvantageAEngland+36pp

Most likely scorelines

1–110.9%

0–110.8%

1–29.9%

P(home / draw / away)21% / 23% / 56%

Expected goals (xG)1.00 – 1.82

Adjustments

Sharpest books1X2vig

Pinnacleeu5.353.961.712.4%

DraftKingsus5.223.841.665.4%

Bet365uk5.033.881.665.9%

Unibeteu5.233.841.646.1%

Sportsbetau5.213.821.646.3%

bwineu4.953.841.656.8%

William Hilluk5.173.991.606.9%

FanDuelus5.153.801.637.1%

+ 1 more books · best price across all shown above

Mexico v England

Model vs Market

Synthetic market (9 books)

Head-to-head & form

Model

Adjustments

Match details

Result