Paraguay v France

0–1

Round of 16 · M89·Sun 05 Jul, 01:00·Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia(1730 v 2060 Elo)

Model vs Market

Model Market

Paraguay

+0.3pp

Draw

10%

12%

−1.9pp

France

85%

84%

+1.6pp

Synthetic market (9 books)

model-derived — add a key for real prices

Paraguay

23.34

best at Pinnacle · eu · 4%

Draw

8.16

best at Pinnacle · eu · 12%

France

1.16

best at Pinnacle · eu · 86%

Market agreement (de-vigged, band = book spread)

Paraguay

Draw

12%

Head-to-head & form

Paraguay wins

draws

France wins

Last meeting: 0-5 on 2017-06-02.

Paraguay — last 5

LWWLW

France — last 5

WWWLW

Model

Strong85%

Most probable

0–3

France

Best upset

1–0

Paraguay · 1.6%

AdvantageAFrance+81pp

Most likely scorelines

0–312.3%

0–212.2%

0–49.3%

P(home / draw / away)5% / 10% / 85%

Expected goals (xG)0.60 – 3.04

Adjustments

Sharpest books1X2vig

Pinnacleeu23.348.161.162.7%

DraftKingsus22.507.991.135.5%

Unibeteu22.858.091.126.0%

Bet365uk21.707.641.136.2%

Sportsbetau21.057.961.126.6%

bwineu22.507.991.117.1%

William Hilluk21.727.881.117.4%

FanDuelus22.277.811.117.4%

+ 1 more books · best price across all shown above

Paraguay v France

Model vs Market

Synthetic market (9 books)

Head-to-head & form

Model

Adjustments

Match details

Result