Australia v Egypt

1–1

Round of 32 · M88·Fri 03 Jul, 22:00·AT&T Stadium, Dallas(1720 v 1740 Elo)

Model vs Market

Model Market

Australia

34%

31%

+3.4pp

Draw

26%

27%

−1.3pp

Egypt

40%

42%

−2.2pp

Synthetic market (9 books)

model-derived — add a key for real prices

Australia

3.23

best at Pinnacle · eu · 31%

Draw

3.57

best at Pinnacle · eu · 28%

Egypt

2.30

best at Pinnacle · eu · 43%

Market agreement (de-vigged, band = book spread)

Australia

31%

Draw

Head-to-head & form

Australia wins

draws

Egypt wins

Last meeting: 0-3 on 2010-11-17.

Australia — last 5

LWWLD

Egypt — last 5

DWDWL

Model

Toss-up40%

Most probable

1–1

Egypt

Best upset

1–0

Australia · 8.6%

AdvantageToo close to call

Most likely scorelines

1–112.2%

0–19.5%

1–28.7%

P(home / draw / away)34% / 26% / 40%

Expected goals (xG)1.28 – 1.41

Adjustments

applied to Elo Δ

Neutral venue, no climate mismatch — ratings used as-is.

Sharpest books1X2vig

Pinnacleeu3.233.572.302.4%

DraftKingsus3.173.442.235.5%

Unibeteu3.003.462.295.9%

Bet365uk3.043.562.226.0%

Sportsbetau3.033.502.236.4%

FanDuelus3.023.492.217.0%

William Hilluk3.113.442.187.1%

bwineu3.073.442.207.1%

+ 1 more books · best price across all shown above

Australia v Egypt

Model vs Market

Synthetic market (9 books)

Head-to-head & form

Model

Adjustments

Match details

Result