Colombia v Ghana

1–0

Round of 32 · M87·Sat 04 Jul, 05:30·Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City(1900 v 1700 Elo)

Model vs Market

Model Market

Colombia

72%

69%

+2.7pp

Draw

17%

20%

−2.9pp

Ghana

11%

+0.1pp

Synthetic market (9 books)

model-derived — add a key for real prices

Colombia

1.42

best at Pinnacle · eu · 70%

Draw

4.90

best at Pinnacle · eu · 20%

Ghana

8.67

best at DraftKings · us · 12%

Market agreement (de-vigged, band = book spread)

Colombia

69%

Draw

Head-to-head & form

First senior meeting between these sides.

Colombia — last 5

WLLWW

Ghana — last 5

LLLLD

Model

Lean72%

Most probable

2–0

Colombia

Best upset

0–1

Ghana · 3.6%

AdvantageHColombia+60pp

Most likely scorelines

2–012.0%

1–010.4%

2–19.5%

P(home / draw / away)72% / 17% / 11%

Expected goals (xG)2.30 – 0.79

Adjustments

Sharpest books1X2vig

Pinnacleeu1.424.908.482.6%

DraftKingsus1.374.758.675.6%

Unibeteu1.394.588.295.8%

Bet365uk1.384.638.455.9%

Sportsbetau1.354.858.506.5%

FanDuelus1.364.728.127.0%

bwineu1.354.838.157.0%

William Hilluk1.364.728.017.2%

+ 1 more books · best price across all shown above

Colombia v Ghana

Model vs Market

Synthetic market (9 books)

Head-to-head & form

Model

Adjustments

Match details

Result