Argentina v Cape Verde

1–1

Round of 32 · M86·Sat 04 Jul, 02:00·Hard Rock Stadium, Miami(2080 v 1600 Elo)

Model vs Market

Model Market

Argentina

95%

94%

+1.1pp

Draw

−1.2pp

Cape Verde

+0.1pp

Synthetic market (9 books)

model-derived — add a key for real prices

Argentina

1.04

best at Pinnacle · eu · 96%

Draw

19.28

best at Pinnacle · eu · 5%

Cape Verde

98.76

best at Pinnacle · eu · 1%

Market agreement (de-vigged, band = book spread)

Argentina

94%

Draw

Head-to-head & form

First senior meeting between these sides.

Argentina — last 5

WWWWW

Cape Verde — last 5

DLDWL

Model

Lock95%

Most probable

4–0

Argentina

Best upset

0–1

Cape Verde · 0.4%

AdvantageHArgentina+94pp

Most likely scorelines

4–012.6%

3–012.0%

5–010.5%

P(home / draw / away)95% / 4% / 1%

Expected goals (xG)4.19 – 0.44

Adjustments

Sharpest books1X2vig

Pinnacleeu1.0419.2898.762.4%

Unibeteu1.0118.4392.395.5%

DraftKingsus1.0118.0894.505.6%

Bet365uk1.0019.2195.576.3%

Sportsbetau1.0018.3493.046.5%

bwineu1.0018.2093.706.6%

FanDuelus1.0017.7992.196.7%

William Hilluk0.9918.3894.687.5%

+ 1 more books · best price across all shown above

Argentina v Cape Verde

Model vs Market

Synthetic market (9 books)

Head-to-head & form

Model

Adjustments

Match details

Result