Spain v Austria

3–0

Round of 32 · M84·Thu 02 Jul, 23:00·SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles(2090 v 1830 Elo)

Model vs Market

Model Market

Spain

85%

77%

EDGE +8.1pp

Draw

10%

16%

−5.6pp

Austria

−2.5pp

Synthetic market (9 books)

model-derived — add a key for real prices

Spain

1.26

best at Pinnacle · eu · 79%

Draw

6.20

best at Pinnacle · eu · 16%

Austria

13.86

best at Pinnacle · eu · 7%

Market agreement (de-vigged, band = book spread)

Spain

77%

Draw

16%

Head-to-head & form

high familiarity — 16 meetings

Spain wins

draws

Austria wins

Last meeting: 5-1 on 2009-11-18. Familiar rivals — history shown for context; the model takes no side from familiarity.

Spain — last 5

DWDDW

Austria — last 5

WDWWW

Model

Strong85%

Most probable

3–0

Spain

Best upset

0–1

Austria · 1.6%

AdvantageHSpain+80pp

Most likely scorelines

3–012.2%

2–012.2%

4–09.2%

P(home / draw / away)85% / 10% / 5%

Expected goals (xG)3.00 – 0.61

Adjustments

Sharpest books1X2vig

Pinnacleeu1.266.2013.862.7%

DraftKingsus1.235.9913.095.6%

Bet365uk1.245.7912.725.8%

Unibeteu1.235.9612.765.9%

Sportsbetau1.225.9712.926.5%

bwineu1.215.9213.187.1%

FanDuelus1.225.8012.457.2%

William Hilluk1.215.9512.767.3%

+ 1 more books · best price across all shown above

Spain v Austria

Model vs Market

Synthetic market (9 books)

Head-to-head & form

Model

Adjustments

Match details

Result