Portugal v Croatia

2–1

Round of 32 · M83·Fri 03 Jul, 03:00·BMO Field, Toronto(2010 v 1920 Elo)

Model vs Market

Model Market

Portugal

53%

52%

+1.2pp

Draw

24%

26%

−2.0pp

Croatia

23%

22%

+0.8pp

Synthetic market (9 books)

model-derived — add a key for real prices

Portugal

1.87

best at Pinnacle · eu · 53%

Draw

3.85

best at Pinnacle · eu · 26%

Croatia

4.35

best at Pinnacle · eu · 23%

Market agreement (de-vigged, band = book spread)

Portugal

52%

Draw

Head-to-head & form

high familiarity — 10 meetings

Portugal wins

draws

Croatia wins

Last meeting: 1-1 on 2024-11-18. Familiar rivals — history shown for context; the model takes no side from familiarity.

Portugal — last 5

WDWWW

Croatia — last 5

WWLLW

Model

Toss-up53%

Most probable

1–1

Portugal

Best upset

0–1

Croatia · 6.6%

AdvantageHPortugal+30pp

Most likely scorelines

1–111.3%

1–010.7%

2–19.7%

P(home / draw / away)53% / 24% / 23%

Expected goals (xG)1.73 – 1.06

Sharpest books1X2vig

Pinnacleeu1.873.854.352.4%

DraftKingsus1.833.634.315.4%

Bet365uk1.793.684.356.0%

Unibeteu1.803.694.266.1%

Sportsbetau1.783.714.306.4%

FanDuelus1.833.534.167.0%

William Hilluk1.793.674.187.0%

bwineu1.843.554.067.1%

+ 1 more books · best price across all shown above

Portugal v Croatia

Model vs Market

Synthetic market (9 books)

Head-to-head & form

Model

Adjustments

Match details

Result