Belgium v Senegal

2–2

Round of 32 · M82·Thu 02 Jul, 00:00·Lumen Field, Seattle(1930 v 1880 Elo)

Model vs Market

Model Market

Belgium

48%

46%

+2.1pp

Draw

24%

27%

−2.2pp

Senegal

27%

+0.2pp

Synthetic market (9 books)

model-derived — add a key for real prices

Belgium

2.15

best at Pinnacle · eu · 47%

Draw

3.60

best at Pinnacle · eu · 28%

Senegal

3.54

best at Pinnacle · eu · 28%

Market agreement (de-vigged, band = book spread)

Belgium

46%

Draw

27%

Head-to-head & form

First senior meeting between these sides.

Belgium — last 5

WWDWW

Senegal — last 5

LWWLD

Model

Toss-up48%

Most probable

1–1

Belgium

Best upset

0–1

Senegal · 7.3%

AdvantageHBelgium+21pp

Most likely scorelines

1–111.7%

1–010.4%

2–19.5%

P(home / draw / away)48% / 24% / 27%

Expected goals (xG)1.61 – 1.13

Sharpest books1X2vig

Pinnacleeu2.153.603.542.5%

DraftKingsus2.053.503.545.6%

Bet365uk2.053.583.426.0%

Unibeteu2.023.573.506.1%

Sportsbetau2.023.533.506.4%

bwineu2.053.453.436.9%

William Hilluk2.003.533.497.0%

FanDuelus2.023.483.477.1%

+ 1 more books · best price across all shown above

Belgium v Senegal

Model vs Market

Synthetic market (9 books)

Head-to-head & form

Model

Adjustments

Match details

Result