England v DR Congo

2–1

Round of 32 · M80·Wed 01 Jul, 20:00·Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta(2030 v 1680 Elo)

Model vs Market

Model Market

England

87%

85%

+2.9pp

Draw

11%

−2.7pp

DR Congo

−0.2pp

Synthetic market (9 books)

model-derived — add a key for real prices

England

1.15

best at Pinnacle · eu · 87%

Draw

8.55

best at Sportsbet · au · 12%

DR Congo

25.05

best at Pinnacle · eu · 4%

Market agreement (de-vigged, band = book spread)

England

85%

Draw

11%

Head-to-head & form

First senior meeting between these sides.

England — last 5

WDLWW

DR Congo — last 5

LWWDL

Model

Strong87%

Most probable

3–0

England

Best upset

0–1

DR Congo · 1.3%

AdvantageHEngland+84pp

Most likely scorelines

3–012.6%

2–011.8%

4–010.1%

P(home / draw / away)87% / 9% / 4%

Expected goals (xG)3.21 – 0.57

Adjustments

Sharpest books1X2vig

Pinnacleeu1.158.5125.052.7%

DraftKingsus1.128.1723.915.7%

Unibeteu1.118.2524.806.2%

Bet365uk1.118.2823.836.4%

FanDuelus1.118.1223.726.6%

Sportsbetau1.108.5524.676.7%

William Hilluk1.108.2324.467.1%

bwineu1.117.8022.567.3%

+ 1 more books · best price across all shown above

England v DR Congo

Model vs Market

Synthetic market (9 books)

Head-to-head & form

Model

Adjustments

Match details

Result