Mexico v Ecuador

2–0

Round of 32 · M79·Wed 01 Jul, 05:00·Estadio Azteca, Mexico City(1810 v 1830 Elo)

Model vs Market

Model Market

Mexico

60%

50%

EDGE +9.7pp

Draw

22%

26%

−4.3pp

Ecuador

19%

24%

−5.5pp

Synthetic market (9 books)

model-derived — add a key for real prices

Mexico

1.94

best at Pinnacle · eu · 52%

Draw

3.84

best at Pinnacle · eu · 26%

Ecuador

4.03

best at Pinnacle · eu · 25%

Market agreement (de-vigged, band = book spread)

Mexico

50%

Draw

Head-to-head & form

high familiarity — 26 meetings

Mexico wins

draws

Ecuador wins

Last meeting: 1-1 on 2025-10-14. Familiar rivals — history shown for context; the model takes no side from familiarity.

Mexico — last 5

DDWWW

Ecuador — last 5

WDDWW

Model

Lean60%

Most probable

1–0

Mexico

Best upset

0–1

Ecuador · 5.5%

AdvantageHMexico+41pp

Most likely scorelines

1–010.9%

1–110.5%

2–010.3%

P(home / draw / away)60% / 22% / 19%

Expected goals (xG)1.90 – 0.96

Adjustments

Sharpest books1X2vig

Pinnacleeu1.943.844.032.4%

DraftKingsus1.893.604.015.6%

Unibeteu1.923.573.866.0%

Bet365uk1.903.633.876.0%

Sportsbetau1.843.693.996.5%

bwineu1.873.583.936.9%

William Hilluk1.893.513.917.0%

FanDuelus1.903.553.807.1%

+ 1 more books · best price across all shown above

Mexico v Ecuador

Model vs Market

Synthetic market (9 books)

Head-to-head & form

Model

Adjustments

Match details

Result