Scores just now· Odds 2h ago500 credits

France v Sweden

3–0

Round of 32 · M77·Wed 01 Jul, 01:00·MetLife Stadium, New York / New Jersey(2060 v 1810 Elo)

Model vs Market

Model Market

France

79%

77%

+2.5pp

Draw

13%

16%

−2.6pp

Sweden

+0.1pp

Synthetic market (9 books)

model-derived — add a key for real prices

France

1.28

best at Pinnacle · eu · 78%

Draw

6.05

best at Unibet · eu · 17%

Sweden

13.39

best at Unibet · eu · 7%

Market agreement (de-vigged, band = book spread)

France

77%

Draw

16%

Head-to-head & form

high familiarity — 23 meetings

France wins

draws

Sweden wins

Last meeting: 4-2 on 2020-11-17. Familiar rivals — history shown for context; the model takes no side from familiarity.

France — last 5

WWWLW

Sweden — last 5

DWWLD

Model

Strong79%

Most probable

2–0

France

Best upset

0–1

Sweden · 2.4%

AdvantageHFrance+72pp

Most likely scorelines

2–012.5%

3–011.0%

1–09.4%

P(home / draw / away)79% / 13% / 7%

Expected goals (xG)2.66 – 0.69

Adjustments

Sharpest books1X2vig

Pinnacleeu1.285.9913.332.3%

DraftKingsus1.245.8012.995.6%

Unibeteu1.226.0513.396.0%

Bet365uk1.235.7813.266.1%

Sportsbetau1.225.9312.846.6%

FanDuelus1.225.7913.016.9%

William Hilluk1.215.8813.177.2%

bwineu1.215.8913.117.3%

+ 1 more books · best price across all shown above

Hclimate

temperate-climate side in New York / New Jersey summer heat

-10

Aclimate

cold-climate side in New York / New Jersey summer heat

-20

Net Δ effect+10 Elo

Match details

VenueMetLife StadiumNew York / New Jersey, USA

Altitude7 m

StageRound of 32

Result

Final

3–0model said France · called it ✓

elo-mc-v1 · 50,000 sims · generated 2026-06-10