Brazil v Japan

2–1

Round of 32 · M76·Mon 29 Jun, 21:00·NRG Stadium, Houston(2020 v 1850 Elo)

Model vs Market

Model Market

Brazil

63%

64%

−1.6pp

Draw

21%

22%

−1.1pp

Japan

16%

14%

+2.6pp

Synthetic market (9 books)

model-derived — add a key for real prices

Brazil

1.53

best at Pinnacle · eu · 65%

Draw

4.42

best at TAB · au · 23%

Japan

7.16

best at Pinnacle · eu · 14%

Market agreement (de-vigged, band = book spread)

Brazil

64%

Draw

22%

Head-to-head & form

high familiarity — 14 meetings

Brazil wins

draws

Japan wins

Last meeting: 2-3 on 2025-10-14. Familiar rivals — history shown for context; the model takes no side from familiarity.

Brazil — last 5

DLWWW

Japan — last 5

WWWWW

Model

Lean63%

Most probable

1–0

Brazil

Best upset

0–1

Japan · 5.0%

AdvantageHBrazil+46pp

Most likely scorelines

1–010.9%

2–010.9%

1–19.9%

P(home / draw / away)63% / 21% / 16%

Expected goals (xG)1.99 – 0.91

Adjustments

Sharpest books1X2vig

Pinnacleeu1.534.367.162.3%

DraftKingsus1.484.296.915.3%

Bet365uk1.484.196.965.8%

Unibeteu1.474.306.865.9%

Sportsbetau1.464.226.916.7%

bwineu1.464.266.746.8%

FanDuelus1.464.246.786.8%

William Hilluk1.454.336.667.1%

+ 1 more books · best price across all shown above

Brazil v Japan

Model vs Market

Synthetic market (9 books)

Head-to-head & form

Model

Adjustments

Match details

Result