Netherlands v Morocco

1–1

Round of 32 · M75·Tue 30 Jun, 05:00·Estadio BBVA, Monterrey(1980 v 1920 Elo)

Model vs Market

Model Market

Netherlands

44%

−0.3pp

Draw

25%

27%

−1.8pp

Morocco

31%

29%

+2.0pp

Synthetic market (9 books)

model-derived — add a key for real prices

Netherlands

2.22

best at Pinnacle · eu · 45%

Draw

3.63

best at Pinnacle · eu · 28%

Morocco

3.36

best at Pinnacle · eu · 30%

Market agreement (de-vigged, band = book spread)

Netherlands

44%

Draw

Head-to-head & form

Netherlands wins

draws

Morocco wins

Last meeting: 2-1 on 2017-05-31.

Netherlands — last 5

WWDLW

Morocco — last 5

DWWWD

Model

Toss-up44%

Most probable

1–1

Netherlands

Best upset

0–1

Morocco · 8.1%

AdvantageHNetherlands+12pp

Most likely scorelines

1–112.1%

1–09.9%

2–19.0%

P(home / draw / away)44% / 25% / 31%

Expected goals (xG)1.48 – 1.22

Sharpest books1X2vig

Pinnacleeu2.223.633.362.4%

DraftKingsus2.163.543.235.5%

Bet365uk2.123.473.336.0%

Unibeteu2.173.543.156.1%

Sportsbetau2.133.533.196.6%

FanDuelus2.123.403.306.9%

William Hilluk2.163.453.166.9%

bwineu2.123.473.227.0%

+ 1 more books · best price across all shown above

Netherlands v Morocco

Model vs Market

Synthetic market (9 books)

Head-to-head & form

Model

Adjustments

Match details

Result