Germany v Paraguay

1–1

Round of 32 · M74·Tue 30 Jun, 00:30·Gillette Stadium, Boston(1990 v 1730 Elo)

Model vs Market

Model Market

Germany

75%

77%

−2.0pp

Draw

16%

−0.3pp

Paraguay

10%

+2.3pp

Synthetic market (9 books)

model-derived — add a key for real prices

Germany

1.27

best at Pinnacle · eu · 79%

Draw

6.14

best at DraftKings · us · 16%

Paraguay

13.60

best at Pinnacle · eu · 7%

Market agreement (de-vigged, band = book spread)

Germany

77%

Draw

16%

Head-to-head & form

Germany wins

draws

Paraguay wins

Last meeting: 3-3 on 2013-08-14.

Germany — last 5

WWWWW

Paraguay — last 5

LWWLW

Model

Lean75%

Most probable

2–0

Germany

Best upset

0–1

Paraguay · 3.1%

AdvantageHGermany+65pp

Most likely scorelines

2–012.3%

1–010.1%

3–010.0%

P(home / draw / away)75% / 16% / 10%

Expected goals (xG)2.43 – 0.74

Adjustments

Sharpest books1X2vig

Pinnacleeu1.276.0313.602.7%

Bet365uk1.245.7612.905.8%

DraftKingsus1.226.1413.325.8%

Unibeteu1.225.9713.146.3%

Sportsbetau1.225.8613.266.6%

bwineu1.225.9012.786.7%

William Hilluk1.225.7812.797.1%

FanDuelus1.215.9812.837.2%

+ 1 more books · best price across all shown above

Germany v Paraguay

Model vs Market

Synthetic market (9 books)

Head-to-head & form

Model

Adjustments

Match details

Result