South Africa v Canada

0–1

Round of 32 · M73·Sun 28 Jun, 23:00·SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles(1610 v 1760 Elo)

Model vs Market

Model Market

South Africa

18%

16%

+1.8pp

Draw

22%

23%

−1.2pp

Canada

61%

−0.6pp

Synthetic market (9 books)

model-derived — add a key for real prices

South Africa

6.36

best at Pinnacle · eu · 16%

Draw

4.29

best at Pinnacle · eu · 23%

Canada

1.58

best at Pinnacle · eu · 63%

Market agreement (de-vigged, band = book spread)

South Africa

16%

Draw

Head-to-head & form

South Africa wins

draws

Canada wins

Last meeting: 2-0 on 2007-11-20.

South Africa — last 5

LDLDW

Canada — last 5

WDDWD

Model

Lean61%

Most probable

0–1

Canada

Best upset

1–0

South Africa · 5.3%

AdvantageACanada+43pp

Most likely scorelines

0–110.9%

0–210.6%

1–110.3%

P(home / draw / away)18% / 22% / 61%

Expected goals (xG)0.94 – 1.94

Sharpest books1X2vig

Pinnacleeu6.364.291.582.3%

DraftKingsus6.164.061.555.4%

Bet365uk5.934.151.545.9%

Unibeteu6.154.171.526.0%

Sportsbetau5.864.051.546.7%

bwineu6.004.031.536.8%

William Hilluk5.854.161.526.9%

FanDuelus5.934.261.507.0%

+ 1 more books · best price across all shown above

South Africa v Canada

Model vs Market

Synthetic market (9 books)

Head-to-head & form

Model

Adjustments

Match details

Result